MLB best bets: Odds, picks and predictions for Wed. 5/8

Blue Jays vs. Phillies

Wednesday, May 8, 1:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Blue Jays First Five Innings +0.5 (-118, FanDuel)

By John Feltman

I like the Jays to get off the skid and take care of business early in the ballgame. I believe they'll be aggressive early on against Aaron Nola, and they are bound to wake up after getting blown out last night.

Offensively, the Jays draw a nice matchup with Nola. He is a solid pitcher in a groove lately, but he has not fared well against Toronto's hitters in his career.

Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dalton Varsho are hitting above .300 against him with limited at-bats. It is a small sample size, but we've seen Nola get hit hard in the past.

Opposing hitters currently have a .356 BABIP against Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt, which is completely unsustainable. Although he is not generating too many ground balls, he is still striking out roughly 8.5 batters per nine innings.

Both pitchers are prone to getting beat up a bit, but I would rather be on Bassitt's side because he is bound to pitch better moving forward. Nola is pitching well, but this is not the best matchup for him given his past history against the Blue Jays, and I think he begins to regress starting on Wednesday afternoon.

I like the price we are getting for the Jays in the first five innings as they cash with a win or tie heading into the top of the sixth.

Pick: Blue Jays First Five Innings +0.5 (-118)

Brewers vs. Royals

Wednesday, May 8, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Brewers ML +110 (DraftKings)

By D.J. James

Joe Ross had not pitched at the MLB level since 2021, but he has done a pretty decent job for the Milwaukee Brewers this year. He will have another opportunity against the Kansas City Royals, who have struggled against righties this year. Ross has a 4.64 ERA and 3.94 xERA. He does not strike many hitters out, but he holds an above average Hard-hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity.

The Royals own a 98 wRC+ in 2024 off of righties with a sub-19% Strikeout Rate. That said, this number has dropped in recent weeks. Since April 24th, they have a 91 wRC+ as the trio of Salvador Pérez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino have carried the lineup.

The Royals pitch Brady Singer Wednesday. Singer has excelled with keeping the ball on the ground, but his 2.46 ERA against a 3.91 xERA will likely not be sustainable. He has been better in not allowing as hard of contact in 2024, but he is due for some negative regression.

The Brewers have been on fire against righties this year with a 120 wRC+ and .765 team OPS. They started hot and have cooled off a bit, but they have depth throughout the lineup.

The kicker is how much stronger the Brewers bullpen is. Kansas City has an 18.2% Strikeout Rate and a Walk Rate over 10% with a 4.60 xFIP. The Brewers have a sub-4.00 xFIP with several back-end arms below a 4.00 xFIP, too.

Overall, Ross and Singer are not too different, but this line is too favorable for the Royals. Bet the Brewers from +110 to -113 on the moneyline.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline +110 (Bet to -113)

Padres vs. Cubs

Wednesday, May 8, 2:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Padres ML -120 (Caesars)

By Tony Sartori

I'm going to dive into the pitching matchup in a second, but San Diego boasts the clear hitting advantage in this game. Entering this contest, the Padres rank higher than the Cubs in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Yes, that is pretty much every main category across the board. The main reason that the Padres are only -120 on the moneyline is that the pitching matchup is likely a wash in what is slated to be Dylan Cease against Hayden Wesneski.

Each pitcher has been excellent this season, both statistically and analytically, which has produced this near-even betting line.

However, it is worth noting that Cease is 3-0 over his past four starts against the Cubs with a commanding 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Add that to the Padres boasting the better lineup and bullpen, and it is worth taking a shot on the road team at -120 via Caesars.

Pick: Padres ML -120